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08/11/2009 - New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Louisiana Derby is being given a purse increase and an extended distance for next year's running. Fair Grounds Race Course announced Tuesday that its major Kentucky Derby prep race will also be conducted just five weeks before the Run for the Roses.
The Louisiana Derby will have its value boosted from $600,000 to $750,000 and the distance will now be 1 1/8 miles, instead of 1 1/16 miles. The stakes for three-year-old Kentucky Derby hopefuls in the past was held seven weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby. It will be run in 2010 on March 27.
"We're excited about being the premier racing venue for our nation's best three-year olds when preparing for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks." said Fair Grounds vice president and general manager Eric Halstrom in a release.
The Louisiana Derby is part of a three race series for three-year-olds at the Fair Grounds who are being pointed to the Run for the Roses. The other stakes events are the Lecomte and Risen Star Stakes.
For 2010 the Lecomte will be held on January 23 and the Risen Star will be run on February 20. The Lecomte will have a distance of a mile and 40-yards and the Risen Star will be contested over 1 1/16 miles. The $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks for three-year-old fillies will Friday, March 26.
The Fair Grounds 2009-10 meet will be held from November 6 to March 28.
"Our racing staff is embarking on a new historic direction for the entire stakes schedule," Halstrom said in the release.
In an effort to bring the two leading thoroughbreds together, Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, the Fair Grounds has created a stakes race for fillies and mares to be run six weeks after the Breeders' Cup. The new race will be on the track's main dirt track at 1 1/8 miles.
"Horse racing fans desire to see Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta race against one another, and we're no different," Halstrom said. "By positioning this new race six weeks after the Breeders' Cup World Championships and three weeks after Churchill Downs' Clark and Falls City Handicaps, it gives all parties involved something to consider and opens the door for further discussions. Anything further at this point would be premature and circumstances could be different in four months, but this new race gives us an option to dream."
The yet unnamed race is slated for December 19 of this year with a tentative purse of $100,000. The purse would be increased if the race attracts Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.
<< Around FCS: Scholarships overwhelm talk in PL
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Patriot League commissioner Carolyn Schlie
Femovich was quick to emphasize the 2009 football season when she spoke during
the conference's media day last week, which is typical of these events.
But even th
<< Tymoshchuk to get chance at Bayern
Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Bayern Munich signing Anatoliy
Tymoshchuk could be set for an extended spell in the first team after captain
Mark van Bommel's injury.
The Dutch international picked up a toe problem in t
<< Stewart is now NASCAR's king of the road
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Stewart's primary residence is in his
hometown of Columbus, IN, but after winning at Watkins Glen International for
a record fifth time, Stewart declared, "This is my house," referring to the
2.45-mile r
<< Murray reaches third round in Montreal
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - U.S. Open runner-up Andy Murray was an easy
second-round winner Tuesday at the $3 million Rogers Cup, an ATP World Tour
Masters 1000 event.
The third-seeded Murray handled rising Frenchman Jeremy Chardy 6-4,
Safina barely wins second-rounder in Cincy >>
Mason, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-ranked Russian Dinara Safina went the
distance on Tuesday to win her second-round match at the $2 million Western &
Southern Financial Group Women's Open.
The French Open and Aussie Open runner-up Safina
Immelman withdraws from PGA Championship >>
Chaska, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trevor Immelman has withdrawn from the PGA
Championship because of a nagging wrist injury.
The 29-year-old South African will miss his third consecutive major because of
the injured left wrist, which he
Real's Pellegrini eyes trophy treble >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid coach Manuel Pellegrini believes
his team can win a treble of Champions League, La Liga and Copa del Rey this
season.
Real have spent an astonishing 250million euros on the likes of Cristi
Braves activate Infante, demote Hernandez >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves on Tuesday activated
infielder Omar Infante from the 15-day disabled list and optioned rookie
infielder Diory Hernandez to Triple-A Gwinnett.
Infante has not played since May 20
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Posts Heisman Trophy Odds
With 3,919 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and a mere seven interceptions last season, combined with a powerful South Bend Heisman legacy, odds makers at MySportsbook.com have given Notre Dame senior quarterback Brady Quinn the best Heisman Trophy odds at 5-2.
Quinn isn’t the only big man on campus this season. Oklahoma junior running back and 2004 Heisman runner-up Adrian Peterson, listed at 7-2, rushed for a combined 3,033 yards in his first two years as a college player and will give Quinn a run for his money.
This online sportsbook has also listed Troy Smith, Ohio State senior quarterback, as another strong favorite to win the 72nd Heisman Trophy. A 7-1 bet, Smith threw for 2,282 yards last season and also led the Buckeyes to a convincing 34-20 victory over Quinn and the Fighting Irish in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.
Current betting odds Heisman trophy are:
| Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame) Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma) Troy Smith (QB, Ohio State) Michael Bush (RB, Louisville) Steve Slaton (RB, West Virginia) Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville) Chris Leak (QB, Florida) Mike Hart (RB, Michigan) Ted Ginn (WR, Ohio State) Darius Walker (RB, Notre Dame) Drew Tate (QB, Iowa) Marshawn Lynch (RB, Cal) Kenny Irons (RB, Auburn) Chad Henne (QB, Michigan) Kyle Wright (QB, Miami) Drew Stanton (QB, Michigan State) Kenneth Darby (RB, Alabama) JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU) Drew Weatherford (QB, Florida State) Blake Mitchell (QB, South Carolina) Reggie Ball (QB, Georgia Tech) |
5-2 7-2 7-1 10-1 10-1 12-1 12-1 18-1 18-1 20-1 30-1 35-1 35-1 40-1 50-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 |
For complete NCAA Football odds visit MySportsbook.com.
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