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07/31/2010 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Uggla became the Marlins all-time home run leader and Ricky Nolasco was solid in 8 1/3 innings on the mound, as Florida held off San Diego, 6-3, in the second test of a three-game set at Petco Park.
Nolasco (12-7), who took a no-hitter into the sixth, gave up three runs on five hits to win his third straight start. The right-hander also struck out seven and walked one to improve to 8-2 over 12 road starts this year.
Uggla hit a solo homer in the sixth for his 144th career homer, passing Mike Lowell on the club's all-time list. Mike Stanton hit a two-run homer for the Marlins, who have won three in a row. Gaby Sanchez had two RBI.
Adrian Gonzalez drove in two runs for the Padres, who lost, 4-2, in the opener of this series. Scott Hairston belted a solo homer in defeat.
Kevin Correia (7-7) went six frames in the start, allowing three runs on four hits to take the loss.
Stanton's two-run homer in the second put Florida on the board early. Uggla walked and crossed the plate two batters later on Stanton's blast to left- center field.
Uggla's record-setting homer in the top of the sixth gave the Marlins a 3-0 lead. Nolasco's bid for a no-hitter came to an end in the home sixth when Hairston led off the inning with a blast over the wall in left.
Florida added another run in the seventh to make it a 4-1 game. Tim Stauffer started the inning on the mound for the Padres and gave up a one-out single to Hanley Ramirez. Logan Morrison then lined the ball to left field, but Hairston dropped the ball. He committed another error when he failed to pick up the ball cleanly. Ramirez crossed the plate on the play.
San Diego's second hit of the game came in the eighth, as Nick Hundley reached base on an infield single. Nolasco, though, retired the next three batters.
Sanchez's two-run single off Ryan Webb in the top of the ninth made it a 6-1 game.
The Padres made things a bit interesting in the home ninth. With runners on second and third and one out, Gonzalez hit a two-run single to make it 6-3. Leo Nunez was called in from the bullpen to get out of the jam. He did just that to record his 26th save of the season.
Game Notes
The Padres have lost six in a row at home to the Marlins...Florida acquired pitcher Will Ohman from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for pitcher Rick VandenHurk...The St. Louis Cardinals acquired pitcher Jake Westbrook from the Cleveland Indians in a three-team trade that also involved San Diego. Along with Westbrook, St. Louis acquired cash from the Indians and minor league pitcher Nick Greenwood from the Padres. San Diego got outfielder Ryan Ludwick from the Cardinals, while the Indians received minor league pitcher Corey Kluber from the Padres...Florida has won five of seven and 11 of its last 15 overall...Nolasco improved to 3-2 lifetime against the Padres.
<< Ten-man Houston ties N.Y. to spoil Henry's debut
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brian Mullan scored in the 90th minute as 10-
man Houston tied Red Bull New York on Saturday, 2-2, to spoil Thierry Henry's
two-assist debut in Major League Soccer.
Henry assisted on two goals for Juan Pablo
<< Gonzo's cycle, HR in ninth lifts Rockies over Cubs
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Gonzalez's lead-off home run in the
ninth inning gave him the cycle and the Colorado Rockies a 6-5 win over the
Chicago Cubs in the second of a three-game set.
Gonzalez led off the bottom of
<< Bunbury leads Wizards past TFC
Kansas City, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Teal Bunbury's header in the 62nd minute
was enough for the Kansas City Wizards to claim a 1-0 win over Toronto FC at
CommunityAmerica Ballpark on Saturday.
Neither side created a ton of chances ove
<< Suppan picks up first win as Cardinals rout Pirates
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Suppan finally got his coveted first win
of the season, pitching 5 1/3 shutout innings to lead the Cardinals to an 11-1
win over the Pirates.
Suppan (1-6) earned his first victory since September 19,
Guerrero's bat, Harden's arm helps Rangers down Angels >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vladimir Guerrero's two-run homer in the fourth
inning was enough against his former team as the AL West-leading Rangers edged
the Angels, 2-1, in the middle installment of a three-game series.
Nelson Cruz ex
Montero stays hot as Sounders down Earthquakes >>
Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fredy Montero headed home the lone goal of
the game in the 26th minute as Seattle Sounders FC handed the San Jose
Earthquakes a 1-0 defeat at Buck Shaw Stadium on Saturday.
Montero continued his
Braun helps Chivas tame Crew >>
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chivas USA rolled to a surprising 3-1 win over
the Columbus Crew at The Home Depot Center on Saturday behind a pair of late
first-half goals.
Justin Braun tallied his seventh goal of the season in the 37th
Murray to face Querrey for Los Angeles title >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Sam Querrey battled
back from a set down to defeat sixth-seeded Janko Tipsarevic, while top seed
Andy Murray outlasted Feliciano Lopez in the semifinals Saturday at the
$700,00
“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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